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101.
Narayan Yoganandan Mike W.J. Arun Frank A. Pintar Anjishnu Banerjee 《Traffic injury prevention》2015,16(4):S100-S107
Objective: Derive lower leg injury risk functions using survival analysis and determine injury reference values (IRV) applicable to human mid-size male and small-size female anthropometries by conducting a meta-analysis of experimental data from different studies under axial impact loading to the foot–ankle–leg complex.Methods: Specimen-specific dynamic peak force, age, total body mass, and injury data were obtained from tests conducted by applying the external load to the dorsal surface of the foot of postmortem human subject (PMHS) foot–ankle–leg preparations. Calcaneus and/or tibia injuries, alone or in combination and with/without involvement of adjacent articular complexes, were included in the injury group. Injury and noninjury tests were included. Maximum axial loads recorded by a load cell attached to the proximal end of the preparation were used. Data were analyzed by treating force as the primary variable. Age was considered as the covariate. Data were censored based on the number of tests conducted on each specimen and whether it remained intact or sustained injury; that is, right, left, and interval censoring. The best fits from different distributions were based on the Akaike information criterion; mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained; and normalized confidence interval sizes (quality indices) were determined at 5, 10, 25, and 50% risk levels. The normalization was based on the mean curve. Using human-equivalent age as 45 years, data were normalized and risk curves were developed for the 50th and 5th percentile human size of the dummies.Results: Out of the available 114 tests (76 fracture and 38 no injury) from 5 groups of experiments, survival analysis was carried out using 3 groups consisting of 62 tests (35 fracture and 27 no injury). Peak forces associated with 4 specific risk levels at 25, 45, and 65 years of age are given along with probability curves (mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals) for PMHS and normalized data applicable to male and female dummies. Quality indices increased (less tightness-of-fit) with decreasing age and risk level for all age groups and these data are given for all chosen risk levels.Conclusions: These PMHS-based probability distributions at different ages using information from different groups of researchers constituting the largest body of data can be used as human tolerances to lower leg injury from axial loading. Decreasing quality indices (increasing index value) at lower probabilities suggest the need for additional tests. The anthropometry-specific mid-size male and small-size female mean human risk curves along with plus and minus 95% confidence intervals from survival analysis and associated IRV data can be used as a first step in studies aimed at advancing occupant safety in automotive and other environments. 相似文献
102.
为解决危险品风险分析问题,利用粗糙集理论在处理不确定、不精确问题上的优势,提出基于粗糙集理论的危险品运输风险分析方法。首先,建立决策表,经化简后获得各属性的重要度,识别出影响危险品运输的主要因素与次要因素,以及主次因素所占比例;然后,利用区分函数对决策表进行约简,得出决策表的属性约简;最后,利用决策表的决策规则对原始数据进行推导,得出危险品运输事故的一般规律。结果表明,影响危险品运输事故类型的最重要因素是危险品的类型,所占比重为42.86%,其次是危险品运输的道路状况与危险品运输车辆状况,各占28.57%。在道路状况欠佳且车辆状况良好的前提下,腐蚀品发生危险品事故的严重程度要依次高于毒害品与压缩气体和液化气体。 相似文献
103.
104.
火灾探测报警系统的可靠程度,直接影响消防系统控制火灾蔓延和保护人民生命财产安全的能力,对系统进行失效风险评估是检验火灾探测报警系统可靠性的有效方法。先采用故障树分析法对火灾探测报警系统的失效风险进行分析,得出影响火灾探测报警系统失效的底事件;再利用模糊综合评价法和重要度算法得到各底事件的失效概率和权重,并给出火灾探测报警系统失效风险计算步骤;以沈阳航空航天大学图书馆火灾探测报警系统为例,评价该系统不失效的概率为0.795 0,不易失效的概率为0.144 1,较易失效的概率为0.0608,易失效的概率为0,然后根据模糊评价的最大隶属度原则,确定评估结果为该系统不失效。 相似文献
105.
106.
为提高对职业危害的识别和控制能力,采用跨国企业风险评估模式帮助我国中小企业改善职业健康与安全管理。选用通用电气环境健康安全管理体系中的11个相关元素作为评估工具,对企业开展干预,并评估效果。结果表明,干预效果较好,工人接触有害物质的水平明显降低,个体防护用品使用率和正确使用率有较大提高,职业危害风险评估符合率有明显提高。应用风险评估模式干预的示范企业,职业卫生现状得到有效改善,为企业管理提供了借鉴。 相似文献
107.
Susana Batel Patrick Devine-Wright 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》2015,58(6):1076-1095
A national-local ‘gap’ is often used as the starting point for analyses of public responses to large scale energy infrastructures. We critique three assumptions found in that literature: the public's positive attitudes, without further examining other type of perceptions at a national level; that local perceptions are best examined through a siting rather than place-based approach; that a gap exists between national and local responses, despite a non-correspondence in how these are examined. Survey research conducted at national and local levels about electricity transmission lines in the UK confirm these criticisms. Results do not support a gap between national and local levels; instead, both differences and similarities were found. Results show the value of adopting a place-based approach and the role of surveys to inform policy making are discussed. 相似文献
108.
Sebastiaan van Herk Jeroen Rijke Chris Zevenbergen Richard Ashley Broos Besseling 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》2015,58(3):554-575
Adaptive co-management and learning are paramount for integrated flood risk management. Relevant literature focuses on adaptation at the level of physical and societal systems. The level of projects and programmes is largely overlooked, but they comprise interventions that adapt our physical systems and they provide opportunities for learning to contribute to transitions of societal systems. This paper aims to increase understanding on how learning takes place and can be stimulated within a programme. The mixed-method case study of Room for the River, a €2.3 billion programme for flood risk management, shows that a programme can be organised using various governance arrangements to stimulate learning and be a means for adaptive co-management to deliver upon environmental objectives. 相似文献
109.
Mengmeng Zheng Hua Zheng Yingxia Wu Yi Xiao Yihua Du Weihua Xu Fei Lu Xiaoke Wang Zhiyun Ouyang 《环境科学学报(英文版)》2015
The nitrogen balance can serve as an indicator of the risk to the environment of nitrogen loss from agricultural land. To investigate the temporal and spatial changes in agricultural nitrogen application and its potential threat to the environment of the Haihe Basin in China, we used a database of county-level agricultural statistics to calculate agricultural nitrogen input, output, surplus intensity, and use efficiency. Chemical fertilizer nitrogen input increased by 51.7% from 1990 to 2000 and by 37.2% from 2000 to 2010, concomitant with increasing crop yields. Simultaneously, the nitrogen surplus intensity increased by 53.5% from 1990 to 2000 and by 16.5% from 2000 to 2010, presenting a continuously increased environmental risk. Nitrogen use efficiency decreased from 0.46 in 1990 to 0.42 in 2000 and remained constant at 0.42 in 2010, partly due to fertilizer composition and type improvement. This level indicates that more than half of nitrogen inputs are lost in agroecosystems. Our results suggest that although the improvement in fertilizer composition and types has partially offset the decrease in nitrogen use efficiency, the environmental risk has still increased gradually over the past 20 years, along with the increase in crop yields and nitrogen application. It is important to achieve a better nitrogen balance through more effective management to significantly reduce the environmental risk, decrease nitrogen surplus intensity, and increase nitrogen use efficiency without sacrificing crop yields. 相似文献
110.
Excretion of manure-borne estrogens and androgens and their potential risk estimation in the Yangtze River Basin 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Yanxia Li Shiying Gao Shufang Liu Bei Liu Xuelian Zhang Min Gao Linjie Cheng Boyang Hu 《环境科学学报(英文版)》2015,37(11):110-117
The Yangtze River is the longest river in China, and the river basin spans one fifth of the area of the whole country. Based on statistical data, the excretion of manure-borne steroid hormones, including steroid estrogens(SEs) and steroid androgens(SAs), in 10 provinces of China within the region has been estimated. The potential environmental and ecological risk of manure-borne steroid estrogens to the surface water in this region was also assessed. The manure-borne SE and SA excretions in the 10 provinces and municipalities vary in the order: Sichuan Hunan Hubei Yunnan Jiangsu Anhui Jiangxi Chongqing Qinghai Shanghai. The highest increase of manure-borne SEs(1434.3 kg)and SAs(408.5 kg) was found in Hunan and Hubei provinces, respectively, and the total excretion in 2013 was 65% more than 15 years earlier in these two provinces. However, the emissions in Anhui and Shanghai decreased in this 15 year period of time. Swine urine,chicken feces, cattle urine, and laying hen feces were considered the dominant sources of manure-borne E1, βE2, αE2, and SAs, respectively. Although Jiangsu province did not have the largest excretion of manure-borne SEs, it had the highest level of predicted17β-estradiol equivalency(EEQs) value of 16.65 ng/L in surface water because of the limited surface water resources. According to the lowest observable effect level of 10 ng/L for17β-estradiol, the manure-borne SEs in Jiangsu province might potentially pose ecological risk to its wild aquatic organisms. 相似文献